NOAA’s National Weather Service today predicted another above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. At a news conference held in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, marking 20 years since Hurricane Katrina, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said forecasters expect 13 to 19 named storms, with six to 10 of those becoming hurricanes and three to five becoming Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes with winds more than 111 mph.

NWS is predicting a 60% probability for an above normal season, 30% near normal, and 10% below normal. Graham noted 70% confidence in the ranges.

View of stadium effect from NOAA WP-3D Orion N43RF Miss Piggy during flight into Cat 4 Hurricane Ida August 29 2021 credit Lt Cmdr Doremus NOAA Corps

Contributing factors are higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, forecasts for weak wind shear, an active West African monsoon—where many Atlantic basin storms are born—and a neutral phase of ENSO, the collective name for the tropical Pacific weather pattern El Niño/Southern Oscillation. This pattern causes recurring changes in water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, resulting in the extremes of El Niño (above average sea surface temperatures) and La Niña (lower average temperatures). Both extremes can have a major influence on weather in the U.S. and elsewhere. Currently, the ENSO cycle is in a neutral phase, meaning Pacific temperatures are about average.

Read more about this year’s forecast at our sister publication SAIL magazine here.